Reactions to Jerusalem: Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing

“Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing. “ — Macbeth Act V, Scene V

There may be one group in the world that is the most enraged by the idea that the President of the United States would recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital:

The US State Department’s Near East Division.

There is perhaps no group that has, from day one, been predicting doom at every turn, with them wringing their hands over “how the Arabs will react” every time they dare consider to “takes Israel’s side”.

The US State Department didn’t even want to recognize Israel in the beginning. After it declared independence, President Harry Truman recognized the State of Israel over the objections of his Secretary of State George Marshall, who was so vehemently against the idea that he went so far as to say:

“if the president were to follow Mr. Clifford’s advice [to recognize Israel) and if in the elections I were to vote, I would vote against the president”.

Israel’s birth had the State Department concerned that it would lead to conflict with it’s neighbors. This is perhaps the last time they have been correct on any major development in the Middle East -never mind if it was worth the price or not-. Since then it has become fashionable for journalists, diplomats, and experts to try to solve the Middle East problem by asking the wrong question over and over. Like ship navigators who are one degree off in the beginning, is it any surprise they have gone so wildly off course?

The very statement “the Arabs” though is a wildly diminishing one to begin with; which Arabs? The oil-rich Gulf Arabs? Or the poor Egyptians who have a peace treaty with Israel? How could anyone who claims to “understand” the Middle East, a ridiculous claim on anyone’s part, think to group the fragile Jordanian state, also at peace with Israel, with the weak, sectarian, and fractured Lebanese? In spite of what many will say, “the Arabs” will react the way they always do:

Out of their own individual self interests.

It’s odd that someone would think the Saudis (along with the rest of the GCC) will look out across the geo-political landscape and see the need to give in to a Palestinian tantrum as more important than it’s converging interest with Israel to contain Iran.

Jordan will look across it’s border with Syria and see bigger problems than a statement on Jerusalem, Sisi in Egypt will still have the same socio-economic problems today that he had yesterday and an aggressive insurgency in the Sinai that he needs Israel to combat.

The Iranian axis in Syria and Lebanon will react as they always have, can you mean “Death to Israel” any more seriously from one day to the next?

To summarize: The Western diplomats of the US and Europe will be breathing hard into brown paper bags over the end of the Peace Process -although they never specify which “process” - and the eruption of the Middle East into protest. It is the locals who have their grip on reality; nobody is going to go against the tide of their interests to seriously support the Palestinians in their outrage. “The Arabs” will make the necessary diplomatic noises and gestures, but will ultimately not sacrifice their vital security interests for the Palestinian cause, take a moment to remind yourself they’ve only ever been treated as a pawn anyway.

The Palestinians will have their days of rage, there may be an uptick in attempts at stabbing attacks or run-over attacks and as tragic as these are, they are not an existential threat; they are not going to change the reality on the ground. They threaten an Intifada because they have to. It’s been their reaction to everything for the last thirty years; not threatening violence would be seen as acquiescence. In the end of all this they will have learned, to their dismay, that they are no longer anyone’s primary concern.

Very few of Israel’s Arab neighbors are going to sacrifice their national interest for their cause. It’s barely even worth mentioning the PA’s threats to cut ties with the US, the notion is ridiculous and not worth taking seriously, that would be their loss alone, there is a chance the Palestinians may learn that decades of saying no to everything they’ve been offered comes with a price.

There is nothing that an analyst or diplomat hates more than being proven wrong, and no group has been proven wrong more frequently in the last decade than Middle East experts constantly foretelling the end of Israel/Peace/the Peace Process. They have predicted doom and gloom at every turn, and time after time have been proven wrong.

It’s oddly fun to watch so many people hyperventilate over the idea that Trump is breaking with decades of diplomacy to affirm Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, as if decades of diplomacy have gotten us so far. Trump may be crazy when it comes to foreign policy, but the “smart” people have been promising solutions for the better part of a century with nothing to show for it.

Maybe it’s time to give crazy a try.